The San Antonio Spurs: Bucked Off the Top of the West For Good

Built around a powerful, boring All-NBA and All-Defensive first team power forward, a quick, experienced, clutch point guard, a defensive stopper on the wing, a slew of veteran role players who ben der dun dat, and a curmudgeonly, cranky no-nonsense, never smiles old coach, they defined grind-it-out, boring success for a decade to the chagrin of beautiful basketball fiends.

That's not to suggest they didn't play the right way; they used the backboard, made the extra pass, crashed the boards, played tough-nosed defense, and reminded us that mind does matter in basketball. But then, they were done.

"Done? Not yet," you tell me.

"Donzo," I reply, because I'm talking about the 2001 Utah Jazz. But my answer would basically be the same if I was referring to the San Antonio Spurs today.

There's the (Big) fundamental franchise power forward in Tim Duncan (San Antonio's Karl Malone), who will turn 33 before the 2009 playoffs. Duncan's biological age is starting to catch up to him imperceptibly and obviously. He shot a career low 45% in the playoffs last season, perhaps due to burgeoning stamina issues. Still he's got the style and moxie to age well statistically. Merlin will uphold his reputation as one of the league's best for the next three years. But the fact that the Spurs may need to rest him for a few extra minutes a game during the regular season could cost them a few wins in a league where a point at either end can make all the difference.

Duncan's penetrating sidekicks, Manu Ginobili (Jeff Hornacek) and Tony Parker (John Stockton), are in their primes right now, but each also carry question marks. Ginobili, a sixth man in title only, attempted more shots than ever last season with impressive efficiency. There are concerns over his durability (he's yet to go a full season without missing a handful of games due to injury), and, fittingly, the Argentinian just had ankle surgery that could cause him to miss the beginning of the season. Parker, a playoff superstar throughout his career, lacks range on his jumper. As Duncan's presence in the middle diminishes with age, Parker may find it more difficult to find space to finish his oft-acrobatic drives.

That triumvirate, however, is not the reason to worry in San Antonio.

The one-time elite defensive stopper Bruce Bowen (Bryon Russell) is now 37, and evidence suggests that he may have lost the handcuffs he used to lock down opposing scorers the last seven years with the Spurs. Kobe Bryant averaged 29.2 points on 53.3% from the field when marked primarily by Bowen in the Western Conference Finals. He's enjoyed a long career by playing dirty, but you have to keep up with your opponent to kick and trip him up, something that's getting more difficult by the year.

Fellow role players past their prime include Robert Horry (38 when the 2009 playoffs begin and mulling retirement), Kurt Thomas (36), Michael Finley (36), Jacque Vaughn (34), Fabricio Oberto (34), and Ime Udoka (31). How they kept up with the Phoenix Suns in last year's playoffs never ceases to perplex me.

Roger Mason was signed to give the team a "young", "proven" "sharpshooter." At 28, it's debatable whether Mason should be termed young. Coming off the only season of his career when he's averaged more than four points, he can hardly be labeled proven. And a career 35% shooter before last season, there was nothing sharp about Mason before breaking out (sort of) in Gilbert Arenas' stead.

Draft pick George Hill looked good value at the 26th pick in this year's draft, but struggled with his shooting in the Summer League. I expect him to become a useful NBA player, but how often do late first round picks turn into stars? Parker was a late first rounder, and Ginobili a second rounder, though, so there may hope.

The lack of quality young support for Duncan, Ginobili, and Parker is worrisome, but more onerous may be the improving state of the West.

Last season, the Los Angeles Lakers won one more game (57) than the Spurs (56) and should improve this year. The New Orleans Hornets won just as many and feature one of the NBA's youngest cores. The Houston Rockets won 55 games, and their acquisition of Ron Artest makes them a favorite for the championship this year. The Phoenix Suns (55) are fading like the Spurs, but their reassembled roster could have one last hurrah in it. And the Utah Jazz (54) are built in the mold of their predecessors.

Looking ahead, it's only a matter of time until the Portland Trailblazers assume a long-term position atop the West, possibly this season even, on the back of Greg Oden (who the Spurs were rumored to have offered Tim Duncan for in a trade before the 2007 draft). And the Memphis Grizzlies, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Los Angeles Clippers all seem likely to cause headaches before Duncan retires.

So it seems that even if the Spurs are as good as last season, they'll win a few less games in an improved West. And they're one serious injury to Duncan, Ginobili, or Parker away from having to worry about missing the playoffs this year for just the second time since the 1989-90 season. Don't bet against it.

If the 2010-11 season arrives with little retooling, good health may not be enough to get the Spurs in the postseason, let alone deep into it.

Final Verdict: 52 wins, sixth seed, first round playoff exit in May. No more conference finals until a major acquisition is made.