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Tuesday, December 30, 2008

2009 NBA Mock Draft


I don't have a fetish for international players, I'm not biased by the opinions of agents, and I actually watch basketball. As conference basketball begins, here's an early look at what may transpire in the 2009 NBA Draft.

Without further ado:

1) Oklahoma City- Ricky Rubio. Anyone who saw Rubio play against the Redeem Team knows this is a no-brainer. He picked Chris Paul's pocket clean multiple times, is quick enough to get into the lane at will (despite what many analysts say), is the most creative passer in competitive basketball since Jason Williams' Sacramento days, looks like an anime character, and seemed to possess the same innate basketball vision that all the greats have. Oklahoma City needs a center, but really this pick comes down to Rubio and Blake Griffin. Griffin would add toughness and rebounding, but with Kevin Durant sliding to the frontcourt and becoming more effective this season, Rubio and Russell Westbrook could form one of the NBA's top backcourts in the future and give the Thunder a troika to build around.

2) Minnesota- Blake Griffin. Griffin is an explosive, dominant rebounder who can post-up on the offensive end whenever he feels like it. His back-to-the-basket game lacks polish, but he'll still be able to score with his Lebron-esque athletiscism. He's a good ballhandler and passer for his size and would be tough for Minnesota to pass up despite their desperate need for guards. Perhaps the Timberwolves could trade Kevin Love for some backcourt help or another high draft pick if they end up with the second pick.

3) Washington- Hasheem Thabeet. Thabeet is 7'3", he moves well, he's a uber-productive rebounder and shot blocker, he's a halfway decent free throw shooter which indicates touch on his shot, and his rate of improvement has been tremendous. Project bigs have a shaky track record in the NBA, but he might be good enough already to earn minutes as he'll surely alter shots and makes opposing guards think twice about driving to the hoop from day one in the League. A starting five of Gilbert Arenas, Nick Young, Caron Butler, Antawn Jamison, and Hasheem Thabeet looks nice on paper. That's assuming Arenas is healthy, and Thabeet is giving them 30 minutes a game next season.

4) Sacramento- Jordan Hill- The Kings have an interesting roster in that they have young talent with long-term deals at every position. Beno Udrih and Francisco Garcia just re-upped before the 2008-09 season, and both see major minutes. Unfortunately, both rank in the bottom half of NBA starters at their respective positions. Kevin Martin and John Salmons are the team's leaders, and both are efficient, underrated scorers on the wing, though not quite All Stars. Spencer Hawes and Jason Thompson are promising, productive young bigs that the Kings can build around. Their weakest position seems to be point guard, but the guess here is that they take Hill, who is quietly averaging 19 points, 12 rebounds, and almost three blocks at Arizona, to add toughness and replace Brad Miller in their froncourt rotation. Jrue Holliday and Brandon Jennings would also be good selections if they could move Udrih.

5) Los Angeles Clippers- James Harden. The Clippers are a ship wreck. They're ridiculously thin with just six real NBA players (Baron Davis, Eric Gordon, Al Thornton, Chris Kaman, Zach Randolph, and Marcus Camby), and are in the position to take the best player available. Harden is shooting 58% from the field, 46% from three point range, and averages 24 points, six rebounds and four assists. He could be a star in the NBA down the road and will be a top notch scorer off the bench next season. He'd be great value for the fifth pick.

6) Golden State- Damion James. Don Nelson loves big men who can shoot, and James is a career 40% three point shooter. He's a lot like a guy the Warriors just traded away, Al Harrington, but it's hard to envisage BJ Mullens fitting in with Andris Biedrens, and Earl Clark mirrors Brandan Wright too closely. They could use a true point guard, and it wouldn't be a shock to see Nelson choose Holliday or Jennings. But a line-up of Jennings, Monta Ellis, Stephen Jackson, Corey Maggette, and Biedrens would be the smallest in the NBA by far.

7) Memphis- BJ Mullens. The Grizzlies have to look for a big man as they've already got a slew of candidates to play point, shooting guard, and small forward. Mullens isn't NBA ready at all, but no one they select here would push them to the playoffs. Had last season's offer sheet to Josh Smith not been matched, they'd look like having a promising future. As it stands now, their success going forward will hinge on finding a rebounding, low-post threat. Mullens has the talent and size to provide that, but probably not until 2011. Keep an eye on Greg Monroe from Georgetown in the event that Mullens never improves.

8) Indiana- Stephen Curry. The Pacers also need to find a low-post talent if they're to progress, but Larry Bird has put an emphasis on improving the team immediately to curb fan disinterest. Wake Forest's Al-Farouq Aminu has the look, but his rap sheet suggests the newly squeaky clean Pacers will look elsewhere. Earl Clark is a tempting option, but in the end they won't be able to pass on the next-Reggie Miller. Few need to be reminded of Curry's credentials, and Indiana fans will connect the two and flock to Conseco next season and beyond to see him play. It's tough to peg Curry's NBA potential, but his newfound ballhandling and passing hint that he may be more than a sharpshooter.

9) Charlotte- Tyreke Evans. Evans' shot has gone awry thus far this season, but his athleticism, defense, and multi-varied skill set remind one of Gerald Wallace. With an opening on the wing after the trade of Jason Richardson, Evans fills a need in the interim while looking like a future All Star at the same time.

10) New York- Earl Clark. Louisville. Analysts say this about everyone, but Clark would be a perfect fit in Mike D'Antoni's offense. He's a fluid 6'9" athlete that can handle the ball and make passes few his size would dream of attempting. The Knicks could take a point guard if Holliday and Jennings are around, but Duhon is doing a better job than anyone imagined. Clark would help the Knicks immediately and is versatile enough to play the three or four, a valuable trait to keep in mind depending on who the Knicks sign in 2010.

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9 Comments:

At December 31, 2008 11:08 AM , Anonymous James Wallace said...

OKC just drafted a point guard who is starting and playing very well for them as a rookie so I doubt they would waste a #1 Pick on Rubio. He isn't ready for the NBA yet either. Minnesota traded OJ Mayo on draft day to get Kevin Love to be opposite Al Jefferson so I doubt they'll draft another big. Besides BJ Mullens at 7 and Tyreke Evans coming out, I think all of your other picks are legit. I especially like Earl Clark to NY. I think he could change their franchise if they get a guy like him who can do it all. He would be an All Star in D'Antoni's system.

 
At December 31, 2008 5:01 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

I suspect you are far off about Tyreke Evans. Mabye he'll go in the top 10 if he stays at Memphis a couple of years. He's the best player on a good team, but he is struggling right now.

Maybe we'll see by the end of the season if he warrants draft talk but so far he looks like he should stay another year and polish his game.

 
At December 31, 2008 5:25 PM , Blogger Billynho said...

Re: Evans; He may stay, no one else is forecasting he'll bounce. But coming out of high school, I took from his interviews that he wouldn't be around long. I think he looks like a potentially dominating defensive player... he's got an NBA body, hops, and quickness... his shot is pretty bad right now, but he just turned 19 so there's time. I'm looking for him to improve as this season goes along just like Rose did last season. Put it this way... if Evans stayed next season and averaged 21, 7, and 5 with a better field goal percentage, where do you think he'd go in the 2010 draft? I'd guess top 3. And I could see him putting up those numbers his sophomore season. He'd be a good risk in the top 10 this year.

 
At January 2, 2009 7:06 PM , Blogger Andrew said...

Word is Rubio's not leaving Spain.

If he does, I can see a Rubio-Westbrook-Durant-Wilcollison-KRS-TIC starting five actually being interesting.

 
At January 2, 2009 9:41 PM , Blogger Billynho said...

Agreed. Add something a bit more substantial at PF and they might have something there... Carlos Boozer? I know they've got cap room.

 
At January 3, 2009 1:45 AM , Blogger The Siets said...

Boozer? I wonder where you got that idea!

 
At January 12, 2009 8:12 PM , Blogger justin said...

How do you not have Greg Monroe in the top 5. He is a versatile big man who in my opinion will go top 4, no question. He has way more potential than Jordan Hill.

 
At February 6, 2009 11:21 AM , OpenID tim said...

first of all andrew...jeff green is as good of a 3 guard/sf as any other player in the league...so why you think okc will draft rubio and bench him is beyond me...

 
At June 3, 2009 1:59 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Kornheiser knows nothing about basketball blake is going first rubio will probably go 3 or 4. steph curry will not go to indiana.

 

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