2009 NFL Mock Draft

CLICK HERE FOR JANUARY 18 UPDATE (Accounts for guys who didn't end up turning pro)

I'll expand on this in a piece later, but I don't think it is mentioned often enough that it is actually a bit of a detriment to draft at the top of the NFL Draft. The top five picks are given contracts commensurate to those of the best players in the league at their position. If they're a bust (as they often are), they become cap-killers who set the franchise back. Give me two mid-first rounders over the top pick.

Alas, I still love the draft and waste too much time following it. Here's how the April 25 NFL Draft first round might play out:

1) Detroit Lions- OT Andre Smith. EFF, what don't they need? Conventional wisdom says that the Lions must take a quarterback with the top pick. What quarterback could emerge unscathed from that mess? They must get value out of the pick, and Smith is seen as a "can't miss" left tackle. While can't miss tackles do sometimes miss (Robert Gallery and Leonard Davis), they have a much better track record than underclassmen quarterbacks (Ryan Leaf, et al) in untenable situations. Take care of your left tackle position for the next ten years and go after Donovan McNabb, Matt Cassel, or even Matt Leinart in trades. The offense would be substantially better next season, and the Lions could focus on defense with their next first rounder and beyond.

2) St. Louis Rams- WR Michael Crabtree. It wasn't long ago that Rams' quarterbacks were treated to an embarrassment of riches at the skill positions. A look at their roster today reveals a stunning fall in the talent level. How bad? If Torry Holt and the Rams part ways this offseason as rumored, Donnie Avery and Dane Looker would be their top two returning wide receivers. Dane Looker! Marc Bulger has been effective in the NFL before, the Rams have made a huge financial commitment to him in recent years, and they should restock his cupboard and see if he can revive his career. Crabtree is a mega-talent in the mould of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, and Brandon Marshall. He's a safe pick for a team with the potential to rebound quickly.

3) Kansas City Chiefs- RB Chris Wells. With Larry Johnson's career in Kansas City about to come to a merciful end, the Chiefs have a gaping hole to be filled in the backfield. Many are projecting they'll take a quarterback here, but Tyler Thigpen acquitted himself quite well the last 10 games posting a 16:8 TD/INT ratio and providing a threat on the ground. Add a running back in Wells with the potential to be one of the best in the NFL, and the Chiefs may have their QB/RB duo for the next half-decade.

4) Seattle Seahawks- OT Michael Oher- The Seahawks could make a case for drafting a quarterback, but Seneca Wallace was excellent in extended playing time this season, and Matt Hasselbeck is a former Pro Bowler. There are many teams with worse situations at quarterback in the NFL. Their main needs are on the lines. They lack high-end talent at defensive tackle and need to infuse young talent at offensive tackle. Because it's hard to spot a defensive tackle worthy of a top-five pick, Oher is the guy. He possesses otherworldly athleticism for his size and can better protect whoever starts behind center. If Crabtree falls to No. 4, they'd have to consider him, too.

5) Cleveland Browns- OLB Aaron Curry. The Browns defense managed a measly 17 sacks in 2008 and taking the 2008 Butkus Award winner would go a long way towards turning the unit around. Their offense ranked 31st in points scored in 2008, but Ken Dorsey will do that to you. Curry made 15 tackles for loss from his outside linebacker position at Wake and is seen as an elite tackler and a potentially disrupting force.

6) Cincinnati Bengals- OT Eugene Monroe. Worst offense in the NFL this season, but the defense wasn't half bad considering they were constantly put in terrible situations. Clearly the pick has to be on offense. Carson Palmer will be back behind center in 2009, and they still have loads of talent at end. They desperately need a running back (Future CFL running back Cedric Benson ran the ball over 200 times for them this season), but with Wells off the board they'll maximize value and take a lineman. Some consider Monroe to be the best lineman in the draft.

7) Oakland Raiders- DE Brian Orakpo. Al Davis will probably trade this pick and his next four first rounders to move up to get Crabtree, but the Raiders must get stronger on the defensive line. They lack an elite pass rusher and are terrible against the run. Orakpo, college football's Nagurski winner, offers a freakish end rusher who won't get bullied around in the running game.

8) Jacksonville Jaguars- LB Rey Maualuga. Maualuga has been NFL-ready since he was 17 and the 10-time All American (or so it seems) will be an elite linebacker for the next decade in the league. He'll be a big tackler and an upgrade over Mike Peterson for a Jaguars team thin at linebacker.

9) Green Bay Packers- DE Michael Johnson. Johnson's blend of size and quickness is oft-compared to Dwight Freeney and Julius Peppers, and, while he isn't seen as a finished product, he'd be an excellent risk for a Packers team looking to beef up against the run. Johnson and Kampman will terrorize opposing quarterbacks for years and should combine to force opposing runners inside.

10) San Francisco 49ers- QB Sam Bradford. Shaun Hill wasn't bad in 2008, but it's time for the 49ers to establish an identity for their franchise. The Alex Smith pick is officially a bust, but they can't let that cloud their judgment moving forward. Bradford would be an unbelievable value at No. 10. His production and accuracy at Oklahoma rank with the best all-time. He may be ready to start from Week One his rookie season and has the potential to someday stand among the Peyton Mannings as the class of the NFL at the quarterback position. He'll probably go higher, but if he falls to San Francisco, they must take him... even though he looks a lot like Screech.

11) Buffalo Bills- OT Jason Smith Jason Peters gave up more sacks than any starting tackle in the NFL in 2008.

12) Denver Broncos- S Taylor Mays With Champ Bailey and Dre Bly at corner, it's hard to believe Denver was 26th against the pass in 2008.

13) Washington Redskin- LB James Laurinaitis Laurinaitis sounds like a disease, but for the Redskins he'd the antidote for an aging- but effective- defense.

14) New Orleans Saints- CB Malcolm Jenkins Saints fans long ago grew tired of watching their cornerbacks give up leads late in games. Jenkins has the talent to go much higher and might be atop the Saints draft board overall.

15) Houston Texans- DT BJ Raji Raji is seen as the top defensive tackle in this draft and would be the third tackle taken in the first round in the last five drafts by the Texans. Hopefully he'll solve their problems against the run.

(Order below not set in stone)

16) New York Jets- QB Matt Stafford With the Brett Favre experiment mercifully over, the Jets will nab Stafford to be their quarterback of the future.

17) Chicago Bears- WR Jeremy Maclin Maclin would add another gamebreaker to the Bears' offense opposite Devin Hester.

18) Tampa Bay Buccaneers- OLB Brian Cushing A four year starter at USC, Cushing will be more than capable of replacing the 35-year old Derrick Brooks.

19) Detroit Lions- CB Vontae Davis The Illinois cornerback and brother of Vernon would immediately move into the Lions starting secondary.

20) Philadelphia Eagles- TE Jermaine Gresham LJ Smith is a free agent and not that good anyways. Gresham's productivity at Oklahoma suggests he'll be more than just a good blocker in the NFL.

21) Minnesota Vikings- DE Tyson Jackson Ray Edwards predicted he would break the NFL sack record in the preseason, but came up 18 short. Hopefully Jackson will speak quietly, but play loudly.

22) New England Patriots- WR Percy Harvin Randy Moss only has a few seasons left in him, and the Patriots can afford to look ahead with this pick. Harvin has lightning speed and the Patriots will figure out how to utilize it.

23) Atlanta Falcons- LB Brandon Spikes The Florida linebacker anchored their defense in its run to the BCS Championship and would help solidify a still-suspect Falcons D.

24) Miami Dolphins- S William Moore Moore is a big-hitting safety who's faster than his size would suggest. He'll help a defense that was poor against the pass in 2008.

25) Indianapolis Colts- RB Shonn Greene Joseph Addai has durability issues and his performance is fading. Dominic Rhodes is at the end of the line. If the Colts fail to add a running back this season, it could come back to haunt them. Greene may be one of the more underrated prospects in this draft as he was literally unstoppable for Iowa all year.

26) San Diego Chargers- C/G Alex Mack Ladainian Tomlinson's productivity slipped in 2008, in large part due to poor line play on the interior. Mack will be a force immediately and could slide over to center should Nick Hardwick ever get injured.

27) Arizona Cardinals- RB Knowshon Moreno The Cardinals problems at running back are famous, so to have a prospect like Moreno fall this far would be remarkable and a no-brainer selection.

28) Philadelphia Eagles- OT Eben Britton With aging tackles Jon Runyan and Tra Thomas, early-entry Britton fills a need and can develop for a year or two.

29) Baltimore Ravens- WR Brian Robiskie Flacco was solid in his debut season, but he needs more weapons to throw to going forward. Robiskie, the son of former NFL player Terry, is polished, dependable, and professional.

30) Pittsburgh Steelers- G Duke Robinson The Steelers lost Alan Faneca last offseason and see much of their offensive line heading to free agency this offseason. Robinson is a behemoth at 335 pounds that fits the Steelers' modus operandi.

31) New York Giants- OLB Greg Hardy The Ole Miss hybrid pass rusher spent most of the 2008 offseason in opposing backfields. He'll fit in well blitzing alongside Mathias Kiwanuka and Justin Tuck.

32) Tennessee Titans- WR Hakeem Nicks Nicks had a monster season for North Carolina and capped it off with 217 receiving yards in the Meineke Car Care Bowl. The only weakness of the Titans is a lack of playmakers. At over 16 yards a catch, Nicks is a playmaker, if anything.