Don't Count Out CC, It's Just One Game

I finally got to watch a game on the YES network.

As an out-of-market Yankee fan, I don't get to watch as many games as I'd like to during the year. I realize I don't have much to complain about, as ESPN/FOX love to show the Bombers whenever they can. However, I don't get to see my team play nearly all their games like I would if I rooted for the Cubs, White Sox, or Reds here in Indiana. (My thanks again to Jake's for their satellite TV.)

What did I get to witness during this game against the Royals? I got to see that 36 year old Andy Pettite is still able to throw good stuff and record outs like he did during the Dynasty run.

But can we really look ahead to a whole season based on a single start? If I were to behave like every other Yankee fan and baseball analyst, then of course I would.

You see, Pettite was amazing in his season debut. His line (7IP, 3H, 6SO, 1.29ERA) was amazing and to be honest if Nick Swisher is a half step faster and plays that pop-up in the second inning better, Pettite likely gets a 2 hit shutout. If he pitches every game of the year like this, ESPN has him projected to start 41 times, winning all of them, throw 243 strikeouts, and keep his ERA below 2.00. What?!? Obviously, Pettite nor any other player this season is going to live up to those projected stats. This is what happens when you project that far forward based on one game.

As ridiculous as this example with Andy Pettite is, people have had no problem doing the exact same thing with CC Sabathia and believing his horrible projected numbers. CC pitched a terrible game on April 6th. His Yankee debut was atrocious (4.1IP, 8H, 6ER, zeroSO, 12.46ERA). I hope that CC never pitches another game like that again. But to think that this one bad start means his season is a failure and that he is going to be a bust is idiotic. His one bad start is no more evidence of a potentially bad year than Pettite's gem is an indicator that he'll defy the odds and his age and put up Cy Young-caliber numbers.

What will happen? I'm no psychic (see below for the real deal) but I'm guessing that Andy Pettite won't start 41 games and that CC will bounce back. Is he going to be a bust? No one knows, but it is too early to make that decision. If he's still stinking it up in July, then we've got a problem. However, I'm guessing that when that time comes and he's leading the league in strikeouts and the Yanks are in first place everyone will magically forget his bad debut and how they wrote him off for the rest of the season.