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Friday, August 8, 2008

Tottenham Hotspur's Neverending Que$t for the Champions League


For the third summer in a row, Tottenham is boldly proclaiming its ambition by splashing out as much cash as any team not owned by a Russian oligarch or Thai human rights abuser.

This time, though, Tottenham means it when they say they're after a top-four finish in the Premier League and the automatic Champions League qualification that comes with it.

This summer they have a world-class manager that has already led a formerly second-tier club to that stage (Juande Ramos with Sevilla), a seemingly limitless budget from which to draw funds for transfer buys (as Daniel Levy looks to drive up the club's value before selling), and are coming off a confidence boost from their first trophy in nine years (the Carling Cup in February over Chelsea).

The milieu may finally be right for Tottenham and their fans to discover what the elite of Europe already know: Georg Frideric Handel's "Zadok the Priest" may be good on the first few listens, but by the quarter finals you wish you were deaf.

After the 2007-08 season there was still much work to be done before Spurs fans could be privy to torture by Handel during Champions League telecasts; Tottenham finished a pathetic 11th in the Premiership last season, 30 points off fourth place Liverpool.

Spurs scored a healthy 66 goals (fifth-most in the Premier League), but surrendered a sickly 61 (also fifth-most in the Premiership). In the last three seasons, the Big Four of Chelsea, Manchester United, Arsenal, and Liverpool have had a goal differential of greater than 30 every season.

That needs to be Tottenham's target. The improvement needs to extend from the goalie all the way up to the midfield.

Tottenham got a jump-start by improving their defense with January purchases of right-back Alan Hutton, center-back Jonathan Woodgate, and left-back Gilberto.

Modest improvement was noticeable towards the end of the season as they allowed an average of one goal per game over the last six Premier League contests, but more must be done.

Entering the summer Tottenham clearly needed a new goalkeeper as Paul Robinson's confidence (and fans' confidence in him) was completely shot, a stronger midfield that could control the flow of the game, and more defensive options since their back four is as injury-prone as any in all of Europe.

The massive turnover in store got off to a quick start. I'll take a look at what has already transpired, and what Tottenham can do to take the step up to the riches of the Champions League.

Transfers-In this summer

GK Heurelho Gomes: £7 million. Gomes fills Tottenham's biggest need in providing a world-class keeper between the posts. He may not be better than Petr Cech, Edwin van der Sar, Pepe Reina, or Manuel Almunia, but he doesn't give much up.

He has Champions League experience, he posted clean sheets in over 60 percent of his matches for PSV, and the price wasn't bad at all.

AMF Giovani dos Santos: £4.7 million. Dos Santos is a paradox. He's exactly what Tottenham need, yet he's exactly what they needed to stay away from.

For the last half decade Spurs' transfer policy has been to bring in young future stars, develop them, then reap the profits. It worked with Michael Carrick, Paul Robinson (for a while), Tom Huddlestone, Gareth Bale, and Aaron Lennon, but the squad is still littered with names of failures that resulted from the same policy with Hossam Ghaly, Kevin Prince-Boateng, Anthony Gardner, and Benoît Assou-Ekotto a few examples.

Dos Santos brings elite-level potential and a creative style of play, but he isn't polished or proven at this point. Is he as good as who Arsenal and Liverpool will be starting this season? No, and that should be the goal.

He was a bargain, though, for his talent, and he is an upgrade over who Tottenham already have. Just don't expect him to appear in the Premier League's Team of the Season for a few years.

AMF Luka Modrić: £16.5 million. Modrić was a great signing that shows the impact Ramos can have for Tottenham. A great manager can help elevate a club both on and off the field.

Modrić had a lot of options, and he stated that the opportunity to be developed by Ramos tipped the scale in Tottenham's favor.

Modrić is good enough to play for any side in Europe, he can provide creativity and unpredictability that has been missing in Tottenham's midfield, and he brings a belief that his team will always win.

That is crucial in trying to take down the established Big Four. The cost was high, but the message it will send about Tottenham is priceless.

AMF John Bostock: Undisclosed. Bostock is just 16 years old, but one of England's top young talents. He won't feature in Spurs' first-team anytime soon, but it's promising that he could've gone to any Premier League side and picked Tottenham.

Right Winger David Bentley: £15 million. Bentley delivered more crosses than any other winger in the Premier League in 2007-08. The price was a bit steep (Sergio Aguero cost a similar amount a few years back as a top-notch import), but the notoriously picky Ramos has seen Bentley up close and come away satisfied.

Total Outlay: Roughly £43 million

Transfers-Out this summer

Lee Young-Pyo: £800,000. Finally! He did not belong on a team with Champions League aspirations.

GK Paul Robinson: £3.5 million. Everyone knew this was coming, it was just a matter of time. No one has allowed more howlers; no one has ever been more overrated. It's best for both parties Paul.

Right-back Pascal Chimbonda: £4.9 million. He was no longer first-choice with the arrival of Hutton, he's moody, he broods, and he's coming off a horrible year. I thought they should have sold him when Chelsea came calling with £10 million last summer. It wouldn't have shown lack of ambition, as many fans suggested, it simply would've been good business.

Midfielder Steed Malbranque: £4 million. Malbranque actually may have be one to keep for depth, but his sale doesn't really hurt the side. It's hard to believe that Tottenham profited nearly enough from his sale to cover the cost of dos Santos.

Midfielder Teemu Tainio: £3 million. Tainio was a perfect example of why Tottenham was mired in its long-term position. He wouldn't start full-time for any of the top-10 Premier League sides, let alone the Big Four, yet he played regularly for Spurs. He rarely does anything of note.

Forward Robbie Keane: £19 million. A true all-around attacker, the loss of captain Keane will could sting this season. On the other hand, Spurs received good value for someone Keane's age.

Total Recouped: £35,000,000

A good number of key pieces have already been brought in. With an initial budget that was supposedly around £40 million, there's a lot left in the kitty. Luckily, there is no shortage of players that need to go as the roster is upgraded. The following could and should transpire:

Players to be sold

Center-back Younes Kaboul: £4.5 million. When midfielders Didier Zakora and Huddlestone are picked ahead of you out-of-position, it's time to move on. It's hard to say why he didn't work out since he was such a hot prospect before arriving, but it's better to sell him off before he turns into the next Titus Bramble.

Defender Ricardo Rocha: £1 million. Has he ever even played for Spurs?

Midfielder Hossam Ghaly: Loose Change? Pocket lint? Trouble follows him everywhere. He's literally worthless. He couldn't start full-time for Derby. It's a shame a £3 million move to Birmingham fell through last summer.

Midfielder Kevin Prince-Boateng: £4 million. See Younes Kaboul, but change next Titus Bramble to next Jan Kromkamp.

Forward Dimitar Berbatov: £25 million. It hurt to type that, but Tottenham will improve if it happens. Berbatov isn't happy in London, he wants to play in the Champions League now, and he deserves that privilege. He's been great for Tottenham, better than expected. He leaves White Hart Lane having touched fans with his class and gives Tottenham one last gift in the form of a substantial profit.

Total to be accumulated from sales: Roughly £35 million

What's the team look like after all the sales?

Assuming the rumors of a 4-3-3 are correct then Tottenham would be left with a first 11 of:

Gomes

Hutton, Woodgate, King, Gilberto

Jenas, Zakora, Bale

Bentley, Modric, Bent

That's not good enough; Jenas, Zakora, and Lennon should be nothing more than rotation players. But with over £60 million to spend, there's hope.

To match up with the Big Four, Tottenham needs an experienced center-midfielder that can spray the ball around and defend.

It's hard to say who Tottenham could attract since they don't present Champions League football; obviously Frank Lampard, Steven Gerrard, and Andrea Pirlo won't end up at White Hart Lane.

They almost wasted money on Tiago Mendes in January, but luckily couldn't come to terms. Three names that Tottenham must pursue are Joao Moutinho (£15 million), Gennaro Gattuso (£5 million), and Miguel Veloso (£20 million). They are vastly different, ambitious targets, but all would bring valuable traits missing in the middle of the pitch.

Why would any of the three come to Tottenham?

Joao Moutinho would relish the opportunity to move from Portugal to the best league in the world. He would be less likely to get lost in the shuffle at Tottenham than at some of the bigger clubs after him.

Gattuso is as scrappy as anyone in the world. He's also as experienced and successful as anyone. He's spoken of wanting to play in the Premier League, AC Milan isn't in the Champions League next season anyways and leading Tottenham to a top-four finish would cap a brilliant career. His edge and drive could inspire Tottenham's entire team.

Veloso is at the same stage of his career as Modric. He's young, coveted by all of Europe, and can pretty much name his next destination. Tottenham has an opening for him at defensive midfielder (he'd be an upgrade over Zakora) where he can get major playing time.

Spurs have the money to pay for him, why not try to swoop right now ahead of the major European powers?

After securing the signature of one of the aforementioned targets, Tottenham needs to restock their pool of attacking players and wingers and add one central defender. They should have about £50 million left to do achieve these goals.

The first target that would be perfect is Lukas Podolski (£10-15 million). Podolski is ready to leave Bayern Munich and commented favorably about the prospect of playing at White Hart Lane. He was incredibly successful at Cologne and for Germany, but has not been great for Bayern.

He's versatile—he can play as a target man, as a supporting forward, or on the wing—and he's explosive. He demands to start every game; Tottenham would gladly guarantee him that.

He'd like to play for the one of the Big Four, but that may not be an option. Tottenham needs to be the shoulder for him to cry on.

One of Santi Cazorla (£9 million), David Silva (£20 million), or Diego Capel (£12 million) could be attracted by the chance of working with Juande Ramos. They would all help facilitate an open attack, too.

A versatile defender with experience at the top level would be immensely valuable to a side with a fragile back-line. Rafael Marquez (£9 million) fits the bill.

Finally, a top striker would be needed to fill the hole left by the sale of Berbatov. Ramos likes his former Sevilla troop Luis Fabiano. The price (£9 million release clause) works, and his goal rate is outstanding.

I do believe a handful of these moves could be completed, and if so, here's an example line-up.

Gomes

Hutton, King, Woodgate, Bale

Bentley, Veloso, Modric

Fabiano, Silva, Podolski

Bench: Jenas, Zakora, dos Santos, Marquez, Huddlestone, Gilberto, Dawson, Lennon

That compares well to a Liverpool line-up of:

Reina

Arbeloa, Carragher, Agger, Aurelio

Mascherano, Barry, Gerrard, Babel

Keane, Torres

If Damien Comolli and Daniel Levy were able to pull this off, maybe people would listen for a change when Tottenham fans call for a top-four finish this year.

Probably not, but they'll be in for a shock in the fall of 2010 when Tottenham runs out against AC Milan in the group stages.

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