Webb, Hall, Rupp, and Fernandez Can All Be Champions

They say all good things come in threes, so longtime track fans should stifle their laughs while observing those less informed deluding themselves into believing the emergence of record-breaking high schoolers Alan Webb, Galen Rupp, and German Fernandez in a singular decade represents a watershed period for American distance running. To those in the know (paraphrasing), Webb is more uncomfortable under the bright lights than an incontinent glossophobic delivering a eulogy after Happy Hour. Rupp is a sub-standard concept prototype conceived by Nike marketers (under direct orders from Phil Knight) to challenge the Africans, but he'll fail because he's, umm, Gay(len). And sure Fernandez is fast, but his Achilles heel is his Achilles heel. Try as they might, though, few can resist refreshing race threads when the aforementioned troika compete.

This generation of runners, led by Webb, Ryan Hall, Rupp, and now German- Dathan Ritzenhein, Matt Tegenkamp, Chris Solinsky, and Leonel Manzano deserve mention, too, among others-, are threatening to break every American record from 1500 meters to the marathon. Webb holds the mile record, is 1.14 seconds off Bernard Lagat's 2005 1500 meters performance, and has- for a short span of time- been the fastest middle distance runner alive. Even if Fernandez falls short of his ultimate ceiling as a runner, his potential is such that he could still claim the American 5,000 meters record in a few years time (assuming Tegenkamp or Solinsky don't lower it first). Sifting through all the criticisms of Rupp and looking at his body of work reveals he's consistently improved his times and started winning races since his days tagging along the back of the pack in elite meets just out of high school; his teeing off on Meb Keflezighi's 10,000 meters record in 2009 will be a compelling story to follow. Hall debuted in the half marathon with a stunning American record and challenged the pacemakers to run faster at last year's London Marathon en route to a 2:06:17 fifth place finish. It will likely only be a matter of months before another record falls.

The United States went two decades without producing a legitimate long distance world-beater (Bob Kennedy tried admirably). Forced to compete with Africans born at elevation, dopers, and the tendency of more mainstream sports stripping away the best prospects, domestic distance was boring and uneventful.

It's hard to pinpoint the impetus behind the overnight popularization (in relevant terms) of the sport, but Tim Layden's 2001 Sports Illustrated profile of Webb and Ritz was likely a contributing factor (along with the dissemination of information brought on by the Internet). Interestingly, Layden accurately posited in the piece: "The two runners, one fast, the other tireless, are just the beginning. Generations of young Americans will follow, training hard, running fast and beating the world. Won't they?"

They did... sort of. Solinsky came two years later. Mega-talent Matt Withrow and Rupp the next year. And now, the best yet, Fernandez.

Fernandez deserves special mention after breaking the indoor World Junior Record in the mile running 3:56.5. Much was made of the fact that he still ran demonstrably slower than the outdoor junior record, but suspicions of age fabrication for all of those records could be supplied as a counter-point. Independent of whether or not he's the faster junior miler in history, German can realistically aim to one day be the fastest professional alive. He'll need to drop a manageable seven or so seconds off his 1,500 pace to challenge for gold someday at that distance. Everyone is anxious for his 5,000 meters debut; the former Applebee's worker will be eating good in the neighborhood (I couldn't help the bad pun) with anything sub-13:20.

Speaking of eating, Webb's 2009 competitive racing debut is fast approaching. Even if he bombs, don't fret. By now we've all seen that he has nine lives. He's got a few to go and will emerge the better from this rough spot. In the unlikely event that he doesn't, the world of American distance running isn't over without him. Celebrate the excitement he provided for the last half-decade and take solace in knowing that he's helped inspire today's purple patch of would-be champions that can be champions.

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German Fernandez a Serious Threat to Win NCAA Cross Country Nationals

After German Fernandez broke the 2-mile national record in winning Nike Outdoor Nationals in 8:34.40, speculation over what he would run next ran rampant... The Olympic Trials 5,000 meters? The Olympic Trials 1500 meters? Perhaps try to get under the 4:00 barrier in the mile or attempt to break Galen Rupp's 5,000 meter record? Could he break 5:00 in the beer mile? Acting upon the rational advice of his high school coach, Fernandez took a long-term view and didn't race again competitively during the summer to the disappointment of high school running fans. That patience could pay off in the form of a first individual collegiate national championship as soon as this November.

The last runner to leave high school with hype and performances comparable to Fernandez was Rupp. Rupp went pro~ err, I mean, didn't run in college immediately after high school. Before Rupp, Dathan Ritzenhein had a high school resume arguably as impressive as that Fernandez possesses. Ritz won two Foot Locker National Championships competing against Ryan Hall and Alan Webb and clocked 8:41.10 in the 3200 meters. Fernandez ran significantly faster in the 3200 meters, but didn't win Foot Locker Nationals last winter (Michael Fout did. Fernandez was reportedly ill and finished third.). Fernandez did crush the California state-meet record. He also displayed ran one of the fastest mile-equivalent times in national high school history, too.

Ritz finished fourth at Cross Country Nationals as a true freshman at Colorado. Could Fernandez better his performance and perhaps win? The times suggest he has the potential to.

To do so, he'll have to beat Oregon's Rupp. Working in favor of the freshman is the fact that Rupp is still recovering from an extremely long track season that culminated in a trip to Beijing. Additionally, Rupp is known to produce fast times, but not wins.

Other likely rivals for the top spot include his own teammate at Oklahoma State, Ryan Vail, Wisconsin's Stuart Eagon, Texas A&M's Shadrack Songok, and Liberty's Sam Chelanga. Each are more experienced, in good form early, and certainly stronger than Fernandez at this point. Chelanga, a wild card as he also is new to the NCAA, has been dominating. He was outstanding in smashing a quality field that included Wisconsin last weekend, although Eagon and Matt Withrow didn't race.

Still, there is not a runner in the field that clearly possesses a better combination of speed and range than Fernandez. His coach projected that he could have run 13:35 last spring and will run around 13:18 in the 5,000 meters in track next spring. 13:35 would better the PR's of all but a handful of the field in November. Let's suppose that he is in 13:25 form come cross national's and that translates up to 10,000 meters (not a given, but for a runner of his talent it seems fair to assume). He is coming off a track season where he could've likely ran sub-4:00 in the mile, a time Eagon and Vail aren't touching, which could give him an advantage in a long drive home off a slowly paced race. In the event that the race is fast-paced from the start, Fernandez has displayed impeccable pacing ability in running consistent splits during his record-breaking track days in California and North Carolina. Unless Songok or Chelenga prove to be world-class runners, Fernandez should be able to hang.

This is not to say I think that German Fernandez will win nationals; it's impossible to predict as so many factors come into play on race day. But it's fair to say he's got as good a chance as anyone in the field... including Rupp. Had he not shut down in June, he likely wouldn't be in the mix for a national championship. Thanks to a mature beyond his years outlook, Fernandez should be in the mix to add another chapter onto what's becoming an incredible story on November 24 in Terre Haute.

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