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Thursday, September 25, 2008

An In-Depth Q&A With Grizzlies Blogger Joshua Coleman


3 Shades of Blue is it when it comes to Memphis Grizzlies coverage, and that's not just my opinion. Ball Don't Lie told me so.

Kornheiser's Cartel isn't it when it comes to anything yet, but it's trying. Or rather I'm trying, because no one else really posts on here anymore.

Hopefully Billynho will make inroads to finding our/my it with this informative interview with Joshua Coleman from 3 Shades of Blue (who I found to be unreasonably rational and logical in his answers... very impressed) where we talk all things grisly and Grizzly.

Read my look at the Grizzlies and make sure to head over to http://3shadesofblue.blogspot.com/ when you're done reading.

______________________________________________________________________

Kornheiser's Cartel: Memphis made what was one of the most puzzling draft day moves in turning two tangible assets, Mike Miller and Kevin Love (who was drafted at a position of extreme need), into a fruit juice condiment (bad joke #1). There was also a bunch of trash traded both ways, but the real treat for Memphis was obviously Mayo. How was Mayo a better fit for the team than Love when most of Memphis's production and prospects were already located in the backcourt and on the wings?


3 Shades of Blue: What Chris Wallace has been trying to do is accumulate talent, no matter what position that happens to be at. That’s why we have 2 PG’s, 3 combo guards, 1 true SF, 2 rookie C’s and a gigantic question mark at PF on the roster at this point. That’s what he has told us – and I believe it to be true.


Now, to be fair, I was firmly seated at the front of the Kevin Love bandwagon, dating back to December of last year. I wanted him on this team and that continued to be true…right up until we interviewed Marc Iavaroni last week, who told us that Love has bad knees that absolutely terrified some people within the organization. Kevin Love’s perceived upside is that of a poor man’s Elton Brand. O.J. Mayo’s upside is…what? Have we determined that yet? This is a league that is predominantly driven by star power. O.J. Mayo is a potential star, while Kevin Love is not. Mike Miller is a solid player and a fine human being. But he is also best served as the #3 option on a playoff team, doesn’t possess a killer instinct and would be in his 30’s when the Grizzlies are ready to return to the postseason. Also, don’t forget that the Grizzlies nabbed Darrell Arthur on draft night as a potential starting PF for the team in a year or two.


But to answer the actual question, there is no way you can say that Mayo is a better roster fit than Miller/Love were, given the team’s needs at the end of last season.


KC: A trade that has been bandied about for some time that may or may not have legs, but probably does considering Chris Wallace is involved, had Mike Conley Jr. being sent to Portland for Travis Outlaw. As a dissociated observer of the Grizzlies, I consider Mike Conley Jr. to be among the top point guard prospects in the game and could very easily see him developing into an All Star. Do Grizz fans not view him as highly? Would Outlaw even start in Memphis? Are you comfortable with Chris Wallace negotiating with Kevin Pritchard? Would you be comfortable with Wallace negotiating with Matt Millen (bad joke #2)?


3SOB: Many fans see Conley in the same light that you do, myself included. I think that he has the talent, potential and skillset to be one of the top PG’s in the game in a few years. Others think that Kyle Lowry outplayed him last year, with one of my co-bloggers included in that grouping. Still others think that O.J. Mayo’s real position in the NBA is at PG, so we should get something for Conley while he’s all stardust and potential – before the rest of the league figures out that he’s just an average point guard. I firmly believe that young PG’s need at least 3 years in the league before you truly know what you have. I point to Tony Parker, Steve Nash and Chauncey Billups as examples of that.


Travis Outlaw would back up Rudy Gay, which means that he’s only getting 10-14 mpg, unless he’s going to be playing PF for some reason. That’s an awful return for a potential starting PG.


I’m 100% comfortable with Chris Wallace negotiating with any GM in the NBA. Normally, I would have left the diabolical duo of R.C. Buford and Gregg Popovich off that list, but after the Luis Scola debacle from last year, even they don’t scare me anymore. I would prefer that Chris stick to his strongest area, which is drafting, but trades and free agency are just as important, so he’d better be on the phone with other GM’s and agents quite a bit, too.


KC: In my look at Memphis, I actually painted a peachy picture of their future if they spend money next offseason. I've received some negative feedback to that piece (as you'll see in an email exchange I'll post between myself and the lead writer of Hardwood Paroxysm). My suggestion that they target BJ Mullens in the draft next offseason (assuming he comes in and goes Beast Mode all over the Big Ten with averages of something like 19, 11, and 3 blocks) received the most paroxysmic reaction. What do you see as Memphis's biggest need in the future? If you agree with me that it is a rebounding post force, how would you view the Grizzlies going after Carlos Boozer next offseason?


3SOB: I do see interior scoring and rebounding as the most pressing need for the future – unless Darrell Arthur really surprises me. It’s funny that you should mention Carlos Boozer, since we’ve been having discussion about him on the Grizzlies Official Message Boards for quite some time now. I think that he would be almost 100% perfect in filling that need – even though most of the pundits have him heading to Miami instead, which makes no sense to me given that Michael Beasley’s future is at PF. The only other player I would prefer next offseason would be the pipedream of a trade for Amare Stoudemire as he sits on the cusp of a potential contract year with a player option for 2010/11. As I said, that is probably just a fantasy, whereas we know that Boozer will go where the money is.


KC: Rudy Gay is a freak. Jay Mariotti wouldn't even argue that, and he argues everything (fact). How crushed were you when Atlanta matched the Grizzlies contract offer to fellow frontcourt freak Josh Smith? Assuming Gay's meteoric rise continues, does he deserve to be a max player?

3SOB: I wasn’t crushed because I fully expected it to be matched. I knew that we didn’t have enough room under the cap to sign him to a contract big enough to keep the Hawks from matching, so I didn’t set myself up for the disappointment that others felt. With that said, watching Marc Gasol or Darko throw an outlet pass to Conley who has Smith and Rudy cutting to the basket while Mayo camps out behind the 3-point line would have been a thing of absolute poetry.


I think Rudy is a fantastic talent who is going to continue to get better. If he raises his production from last year and plays better defense, then I believe that he will command a max level contract extension when the time comes. As for whether or not he deserves it, that’s a two part answer.

  1. He deserves it in terms of market level compensation.
  2. He doesn’t deserve it (yet) in terms of being a Superstar.

KC: Will the Grizzlies bench miss Brian Cardinal :( ?

3SOB: Not when they have Marko Jaric bringing his lovely fiancée and her Victoria’s Secret friends around, they won’t. ;^)



KC: Suppose the Kings call tomorrow and offer Brad Miller for the European Sensation Darko Milicic and Crittenton. Deal or no deal?

3SOB: No deal! At this point, I don’t know that I would give either of them for a 32-year old PF/C who has been missing games left and right his entire career. I love Miller’s game and would have welcomed him with open arms prior to the Pau Gasol trade, but this team is too far away from being playoff competitive for him to make a marked difference. Of course, I’m one of the few suckers that thinks that Darko actually belongs in the league still.



KC: More Valuable (Sometimes Former) Grizzly:


KC: Mike Bibby or Jason Williams?


3SOB: Even though I think that Bibby is the better overall player, I have to give the nod to Whit E. Boy, given that he was there for two playoff seasons and Bibby topped out at 23 wins in his best season with the Grizzlies.


KC: Shareef Abdur-Rahim or Pau Gasol?


3SOB: In this one, I think that Gasol is both the better player and the more valuable, as he was the centerpiece for the 3 postseason appearances with the Grizzlies. ‘Reef had better stats, but they were achieved in the midst of largely meaningless seasons, which is unfortunate.


KC: Jerry West or Mike Fratello?


3SOB: Mike Fratello’s success was built upon what Hubie Brown instilled in a young team when he taught them how to win. Jerry West made the decision to hire both of them, as well as acquiring Mike Miller, James Posey, Bonzi Wells, Rudy Gay and Kyle Lowry during his tenure. West changed the entire demeanor of a downtrodden organization, so IMO, he was much more valuable.


KC: Grizz or Chris Wallace?

3SOB: This is a tough one – although not because Wallace is a bad GM, as you’d like to think. We got to see what life was like without a mascot last season, as Grizz underwent treatments for Hodgkin’s lymphoma. When other teams sent their mascots in from time to time throughout the season, it made a noticeable difference in the attitude throughout the FedExForum. But, I have to give the nod to Chris Wallace, who has acquired Conley, Mayo, Crittenton, Marc Gasol, Darrell Arthur, Darko and an additional 2010 draft pick. This team needed to upgrade its talent level more than anything else and Wallace has worked hard to do that in the year that he has been on the job.


KC: Who would you rather have for the next ten years:

OJ Mayo or Rudy Gay?


3SOB: Surprisingly, I’d probably rather have O.J. Mayo, even though I was down on him prior to the draft. O.J.’s maturity and leadership, coupled with his talent, drive to succeed and killer instinct push him ahead of Rudy in my mind, even though I have yet to see him play a single NBA game yet. To be honest, I’m as astounded by that admission as anyone.


KC: The Grizzlies 2009 1st round pick (3rd overall hypothetically), Kyle Lowry, and Hakim Warrick or BJ Mullens?


3SOB: Tough call. Mullens hasn’t really been a dominating presence thus far, and the knock on him is that he takes plays off on both ends of the court. Of course, that was the same negative that people threw out there about Rudy Gay before he got drafted too. If Mullens puts it all together, then he could be a force in the NBA for the next decade. If he doesn’t, then he could be another Kwame Brown or Michael Olowokandi. Who wants that decision, when you could select Blake Griffin, Ricky Rubio or Demar DeRozan at the #3 spot? You take the best player available (always my position when assessing lottery picks) and if he doesn’t fit your roster needs, then you make trades to balance out the issue. So – one year out from the next draft – I’ll take the top 3 pick and two quality players over the questionable big man.

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Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Surreptitious Paralogisms: The Search For The Next Jordan In The 2008 NBA Draft


After the Lakers won the Western Conference Finals and were declared World Champions by the media, and Kobe was pronounced the next-MJ*, I decided that I'd be better served getting ready for the NBA Draft than wasting my time watching L.A. inevitably crush Boston. I've spent weeks scouting players (on YouTube), scouring insider info about workouts (straight from the mouth of agents, sadly), and poring over mock drafts (most common insight… Danilo Gallinari= offensive genius**). In that time, as I'm sure you've heard, the Lakers shockingly fell to Boston, and well, we may yet still be looking for that elusive next-MJ*.

I'm ahead of the game on this one, and, without further ado, will help you anticipate who the media will prematurely crown in the coming years and tell you how this year's search for the next-MJ will play out:

1. Chicago- Derrick Rose's numbers aren't mind-blowing, but his athleticism is shocking. He decimated both DJ Augustin and Darren Collison (arguably the next two best points in college basketball this season) in back-to-back games. Michael Beasley offers an extremely productive potential post presence (something the Bulls have lacked for years), albeit at just 6'7". Both would fit Chicago.

The pick: Rose. He won't ever be the best player in the NBA, but he is the next-Anfernee Hardaway. Hardaway in his prime is way better than anyone remembers. The similarities are shocking (so is the finishing) when you watch highlights of the two. Try these bits of nastiness…

Rose: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6G_RRGHzfA

Penny: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_vv4s5ZD3iM

Random Musings: If they take Rose, they've got a problem because they're already locked in long-term on Kirk Hinrich. Perhaps the Pacers (always looking for white players) would accept an offer of Hinrich, Nocioni, and Noah for Jermaine O'Neal? It's risky for the Bulls, but it'd leave them with a line-up of Rose, Gordon, Deng, Gooden, and O'Neal. That team would draft in the 20's next season if O'Neal plays 60+ games.

2. Miami- Shawn Marion looks to once again be the third-wheel no matter who they select here; he should probably go ahead and demand a trade to Memphis or New York. There are rumors abound that Riley likes O.J. Mayo. On paper it's puzzling because they have no marquee players inside. But neither did the Bulls in the 90's.

The pick: Beasley will be scoring 25 points a game within a few years. I read an interview with him where he talks about practicing 6-8 hours a day since he was a kid. I was impressed. I believe it because when you listen to him talk it sure doesn't sound like he's been studying.

Random Musings: They suck. Elton Brand would help in a trade; he's supposedly available, they have Marion to offer. A three-man core of Wade, Brand, and Beasley looks great. The Milwaukee Bucks went to game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals in 2001 with Ray Allen, Glenn Robinson, and Sam Cassell as their three leading scorers. Which three would you rather have? Beasley actually reminds me a lot of the Big Dog. Yes, let's call him the next-Big Dog.

3. Minnesota- One look at the Timberwolves roster, and you can see why Kevin Garnett could never take them anywhere. The team is ugly, and I think they need someone who can inspire people to care.

The pick: After reading Kevin McHale's quotes about Kevin Love (a shorter Vlade Divac), I see him as the pick. This is way too high if you listen to all the doubts about his height, weight, quickness, lack of speed, dad, defense jumping ability, and weak performance against the bigs of Memphis. But at least he throws a nice outlet pass. And he's old-school and gritty. Just like McHale.

Random Musings: No matter who they take, they'll be back in the lottery next season. I hate to sound like every other sports follower in the country, but they need a new GM. McHale's the worst.

4. Seattle- It's taken for granted that the Sonics are on the way up, but they really only have a few pieces worth keeping. Kevin Durant will be an All-Star soon; it remains to be seen how Jeff Green progresses. Outside of those two, there's not much. A big or a guard will do.

The pick: The consensus seems to be that Jerryd Bayless is going here. He's quick, he's explosive, he can shoot, and he doesn't seem to have any baggage. I don't know about the talk of playing him or Mayo at the point, though. And Eric Gordon would definitely be a better choice.

Random Musings: If this pick turns out to be a star, the Sonics could be very good for the next 10 years. If not, Kevin Durant may look to escape a few summers from now. I wouldn't want to live in Oklahoma.

5. Memphis- I'm sorry, Chris Wallace, for calling McHale the worst GM. But you've all heard those tired jokes, no more. A quick peek at the team's roster reveals way too many guards… Conley, Navarro, Lowry, Crittenton. That's bad news with a few stud backcourt prospects still on the board.

The pick: Assuming they don't trade up into the top two (which actually makes a lot of sense), they'll take Brook Lopez (the next-Chris Mihm!). Taking a guard here would be like Matt Millen drafting another wide receiver in the first round next year. Lopez will be a bust, and the Grizzlies will be drafting in the top-5 again next year. And probably the year after that, too.

Random Musings: Something must be done to remove some of the point guards from the roster. Also, the idea of flipping Mike Miller while he has value is a good one. They aren't going to win in the next few years, why not send him off to a contender for picks and youngsters (but do better than the Pau Gasol package)? And I love Brian Cardinal, but he's not an NBA player.

6. New York- On paper, the Knicks have no (good) shooters. The Suns had a handful. The Knicks have no point guard. The Suns had one of the best ever. We'll find out just how smart D'Antoni is this season.

The pick: Gordon's got range out to 30 feet, but the Knicks can't pass on Mayo here. He's already a star in name, he fits a need, and it feels right.

Random Musings: I don't know what the Knicks will do about Zach Randolph and Eddy Curry. They can't play them both- everyone knows that- but who would trade anything for either of them? Have they tried calling Chris Wallace? I said I wouldn't make anymore Chris Wallace jokes?

7. The Clippers- The Clippers aren't bad, but they aren't good either. They're like a mid-table EPL team, say Blackburn. They're built to aim for .500 and shoot for No. 8 seeds. There are established above-average players in Brand, Maggette, and Kaman. There's quality youth in Thornton, this pick, and Shaun Livingston (maybe). But could they be NBA Champions five years down the road? I'd be shocked. Unless they take…

The pick: Eric Gordon. There's a reason he was projected as a top-3 pick most of the year. He's extremely powerful, he's fast, he's a great shooter, he's a high-flyer, but there are questions about his mentality. His stats were impressive until a late-season slide in a difficult situation. He can lock-down on defense when he tries; the trouble is he often looks disinterested on both ends of the court. If he had Tyler Hansbrough's heart and tenacity, he might just be the next-MJ. He will be good; he could be great.

Random Musings: Seven picks, six freshmen. Even if the draft doesn't play out like I've projected, the rule that kids must attend at least one year of college isn't changing much. Nine of the top 10 from the 2007 Rivals rankings turned pro after their freshmen year. Their draft status hasn't been impacted by their year in college. Rose, Beasley, Mayo, and Gordon would've all been top picks last year.

8. Milwaukee- The Bucks look decent at every position. The trouble is they have no real All-Star, even if Michael Redd has that reputation. Andrew Bogut can't carry a team, yet, but he is only 23. If they landed one of the top two picks, they'd look poised for a bright future. As is, they're not going anywhere soon.

The pick: Freak athlete Joe Alexander… Let's hope he doesn't kick and scream on the flight in like Yi. His handle is tight, he's fast and can jump, and he improved tremendously over the course of his junior season. It's hard to recall a white guy who played quite like him.

Random Musings: Sometimes it just makes sense to be really bad. The Bucks might want to try it out and aim for another top pick in the draft. Otherwise they'll be in play-off purgatory every year waiting to find out if they can get to 41 wins. If they traded Redd for future picks and a stud youngster, that would set them up nicely for the top of next year's draft.

9. Charlotte- I'm sure Michael Jordan has been working just as hard as I have breaking down prospects, but when all of the North Carolina guys dropped out, it was back to square one. At least they have Adam Morrison back next year?

The pick: He's tall, rangy, and fluid; sadly for MJ, he's not the next-Chris Bosh. Anthony Randolph is not what you think; he can't post-up, he's not a banger inside, but he is a much better dribbler and runner than you're probably picturing. He's Troy Murphy without three-point range. MJ will plug his lanky frame into the barrel-chested, beer-gut shaped frontcourt hole left by Sean May, then not notice when leaks emerge because he's never actually watched a Bobcats game.

Random Musings: This is yet another team treading water. The good news is that none of their core guys are over 27 years old. The bad news is that they're- at best- Shawn Marions, the third best player on a really good team. What could they do? Package up a few of them and this pick for Carmelo Anthony. Or hope Larry Brown can inspire a 15-20 game improvement like he did back-in-the-day.

10. New Jersey- If Hova can't entice LeBron (have you heard they're friends?) to do one to Brooklyn in his free-agent year, the Nets will be taking hard knocks on the scoreboard all next decade. You Can't Knock The Hustle of their young role players, but Can I Get A back-to-the-basket big down low? I have Reasonable Doubt that they'll find one at this spot.

The pick: They don't have a single mobile big man on their roster, so Danilo Gallinari makes sense in theory. The problem is that Gallinari looks hilariously slow in every clip I've seen, and that's against white players! He can finish awkwardly in traffic a la Manu Ginobili, and big guys with his skill level are rare. He's actually a lot like Joe Alexander, but slower.

Random Musings: Does anyone want Vince Carter? Anyone? Please?

*"Next-MJ" is a registered trademark of the overzealous, unoriginal MSM.

** Equation derived by sportswriters who have never actually seen Danilo Gallinari, let alone watched him play basketball.

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