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Thursday, September 25, 2008

An In-Depth Q&A With Grizzlies Blogger Joshua Coleman


3 Shades of Blue is it when it comes to Memphis Grizzlies coverage, and that's not just my opinion. Ball Don't Lie told me so.

Kornheiser's Cartel isn't it when it comes to anything yet, but it's trying. Or rather I'm trying, because no one else really posts on here anymore.

Hopefully Billynho will make inroads to finding our/my it with this informative interview with Joshua Coleman from 3 Shades of Blue (who I found to be unreasonably rational and logical in his answers... very impressed) where we talk all things grisly and Grizzly.

Read my look at the Grizzlies and make sure to head over to http://3shadesofblue.blogspot.com/ when you're done reading.

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Kornheiser's Cartel: Memphis made what was one of the most puzzling draft day moves in turning two tangible assets, Mike Miller and Kevin Love (who was drafted at a position of extreme need), into a fruit juice condiment (bad joke #1). There was also a bunch of trash traded both ways, but the real treat for Memphis was obviously Mayo. How was Mayo a better fit for the team than Love when most of Memphis's production and prospects were already located in the backcourt and on the wings?


3 Shades of Blue: What Chris Wallace has been trying to do is accumulate talent, no matter what position that happens to be at. That’s why we have 2 PG’s, 3 combo guards, 1 true SF, 2 rookie C’s and a gigantic question mark at PF on the roster at this point. That’s what he has told us – and I believe it to be true.


Now, to be fair, I was firmly seated at the front of the Kevin Love bandwagon, dating back to December of last year. I wanted him on this team and that continued to be true…right up until we interviewed Marc Iavaroni last week, who told us that Love has bad knees that absolutely terrified some people within the organization. Kevin Love’s perceived upside is that of a poor man’s Elton Brand. O.J. Mayo’s upside is…what? Have we determined that yet? This is a league that is predominantly driven by star power. O.J. Mayo is a potential star, while Kevin Love is not. Mike Miller is a solid player and a fine human being. But he is also best served as the #3 option on a playoff team, doesn’t possess a killer instinct and would be in his 30’s when the Grizzlies are ready to return to the postseason. Also, don’t forget that the Grizzlies nabbed Darrell Arthur on draft night as a potential starting PF for the team in a year or two.


But to answer the actual question, there is no way you can say that Mayo is a better roster fit than Miller/Love were, given the team’s needs at the end of last season.


KC: A trade that has been bandied about for some time that may or may not have legs, but probably does considering Chris Wallace is involved, had Mike Conley Jr. being sent to Portland for Travis Outlaw. As a dissociated observer of the Grizzlies, I consider Mike Conley Jr. to be among the top point guard prospects in the game and could very easily see him developing into an All Star. Do Grizz fans not view him as highly? Would Outlaw even start in Memphis? Are you comfortable with Chris Wallace negotiating with Kevin Pritchard? Would you be comfortable with Wallace negotiating with Matt Millen (bad joke #2)?


3SOB: Many fans see Conley in the same light that you do, myself included. I think that he has the talent, potential and skillset to be one of the top PG’s in the game in a few years. Others think that Kyle Lowry outplayed him last year, with one of my co-bloggers included in that grouping. Still others think that O.J. Mayo’s real position in the NBA is at PG, so we should get something for Conley while he’s all stardust and potential – before the rest of the league figures out that he’s just an average point guard. I firmly believe that young PG’s need at least 3 years in the league before you truly know what you have. I point to Tony Parker, Steve Nash and Chauncey Billups as examples of that.


Travis Outlaw would back up Rudy Gay, which means that he’s only getting 10-14 mpg, unless he’s going to be playing PF for some reason. That’s an awful return for a potential starting PG.


I’m 100% comfortable with Chris Wallace negotiating with any GM in the NBA. Normally, I would have left the diabolical duo of R.C. Buford and Gregg Popovich off that list, but after the Luis Scola debacle from last year, even they don’t scare me anymore. I would prefer that Chris stick to his strongest area, which is drafting, but trades and free agency are just as important, so he’d better be on the phone with other GM’s and agents quite a bit, too.


KC: In my look at Memphis, I actually painted a peachy picture of their future if they spend money next offseason. I've received some negative feedback to that piece (as you'll see in an email exchange I'll post between myself and the lead writer of Hardwood Paroxysm). My suggestion that they target BJ Mullens in the draft next offseason (assuming he comes in and goes Beast Mode all over the Big Ten with averages of something like 19, 11, and 3 blocks) received the most paroxysmic reaction. What do you see as Memphis's biggest need in the future? If you agree with me that it is a rebounding post force, how would you view the Grizzlies going after Carlos Boozer next offseason?


3SOB: I do see interior scoring and rebounding as the most pressing need for the future – unless Darrell Arthur really surprises me. It’s funny that you should mention Carlos Boozer, since we’ve been having discussion about him on the Grizzlies Official Message Boards for quite some time now. I think that he would be almost 100% perfect in filling that need – even though most of the pundits have him heading to Miami instead, which makes no sense to me given that Michael Beasley’s future is at PF. The only other player I would prefer next offseason would be the pipedream of a trade for Amare Stoudemire as he sits on the cusp of a potential contract year with a player option for 2010/11. As I said, that is probably just a fantasy, whereas we know that Boozer will go where the money is.


KC: Rudy Gay is a freak. Jay Mariotti wouldn't even argue that, and he argues everything (fact). How crushed were you when Atlanta matched the Grizzlies contract offer to fellow frontcourt freak Josh Smith? Assuming Gay's meteoric rise continues, does he deserve to be a max player?

3SOB: I wasn’t crushed because I fully expected it to be matched. I knew that we didn’t have enough room under the cap to sign him to a contract big enough to keep the Hawks from matching, so I didn’t set myself up for the disappointment that others felt. With that said, watching Marc Gasol or Darko throw an outlet pass to Conley who has Smith and Rudy cutting to the basket while Mayo camps out behind the 3-point line would have been a thing of absolute poetry.


I think Rudy is a fantastic talent who is going to continue to get better. If he raises his production from last year and plays better defense, then I believe that he will command a max level contract extension when the time comes. As for whether or not he deserves it, that’s a two part answer.

  1. He deserves it in terms of market level compensation.
  2. He doesn’t deserve it (yet) in terms of being a Superstar.

KC: Will the Grizzlies bench miss Brian Cardinal :( ?

3SOB: Not when they have Marko Jaric bringing his lovely fiancée and her Victoria’s Secret friends around, they won’t. ;^)



KC: Suppose the Kings call tomorrow and offer Brad Miller for the European Sensation Darko Milicic and Crittenton. Deal or no deal?

3SOB: No deal! At this point, I don’t know that I would give either of them for a 32-year old PF/C who has been missing games left and right his entire career. I love Miller’s game and would have welcomed him with open arms prior to the Pau Gasol trade, but this team is too far away from being playoff competitive for him to make a marked difference. Of course, I’m one of the few suckers that thinks that Darko actually belongs in the league still.



KC: More Valuable (Sometimes Former) Grizzly:


KC: Mike Bibby or Jason Williams?


3SOB: Even though I think that Bibby is the better overall player, I have to give the nod to Whit E. Boy, given that he was there for two playoff seasons and Bibby topped out at 23 wins in his best season with the Grizzlies.


KC: Shareef Abdur-Rahim or Pau Gasol?


3SOB: In this one, I think that Gasol is both the better player and the more valuable, as he was the centerpiece for the 3 postseason appearances with the Grizzlies. ‘Reef had better stats, but they were achieved in the midst of largely meaningless seasons, which is unfortunate.


KC: Jerry West or Mike Fratello?


3SOB: Mike Fratello’s success was built upon what Hubie Brown instilled in a young team when he taught them how to win. Jerry West made the decision to hire both of them, as well as acquiring Mike Miller, James Posey, Bonzi Wells, Rudy Gay and Kyle Lowry during his tenure. West changed the entire demeanor of a downtrodden organization, so IMO, he was much more valuable.


KC: Grizz or Chris Wallace?

3SOB: This is a tough one – although not because Wallace is a bad GM, as you’d like to think. We got to see what life was like without a mascot last season, as Grizz underwent treatments for Hodgkin’s lymphoma. When other teams sent their mascots in from time to time throughout the season, it made a noticeable difference in the attitude throughout the FedExForum. But, I have to give the nod to Chris Wallace, who has acquired Conley, Mayo, Crittenton, Marc Gasol, Darrell Arthur, Darko and an additional 2010 draft pick. This team needed to upgrade its talent level more than anything else and Wallace has worked hard to do that in the year that he has been on the job.


KC: Who would you rather have for the next ten years:

OJ Mayo or Rudy Gay?


3SOB: Surprisingly, I’d probably rather have O.J. Mayo, even though I was down on him prior to the draft. O.J.’s maturity and leadership, coupled with his talent, drive to succeed and killer instinct push him ahead of Rudy in my mind, even though I have yet to see him play a single NBA game yet. To be honest, I’m as astounded by that admission as anyone.


KC: The Grizzlies 2009 1st round pick (3rd overall hypothetically), Kyle Lowry, and Hakim Warrick or BJ Mullens?


3SOB: Tough call. Mullens hasn’t really been a dominating presence thus far, and the knock on him is that he takes plays off on both ends of the court. Of course, that was the same negative that people threw out there about Rudy Gay before he got drafted too. If Mullens puts it all together, then he could be a force in the NBA for the next decade. If he doesn’t, then he could be another Kwame Brown or Michael Olowokandi. Who wants that decision, when you could select Blake Griffin, Ricky Rubio or Demar DeRozan at the #3 spot? You take the best player available (always my position when assessing lottery picks) and if he doesn’t fit your roster needs, then you make trades to balance out the issue. So – one year out from the next draft – I’ll take the top 3 pick and two quality players over the questionable big man.

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Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Memphis Grisly

Cover your eyes Chris Wallace fans; this critique is going to burn!

Hey, no one is... covering... their eyes? Oh, there you are Chad Ford! I don't believe anything you say, though, so I'm gonna go ahead and begin.

Now let's take a look... Mike Conley Jr., good. Javaris Crittenton, nice potential. Kyle Lowry, solid. OJ Mayo, could be special. Marko Jaric, bad contract, worse game. Greg Buckner, pretty morbid.

Hang on... That can't be right... 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Seriously? Five point/combo guards? (And Greg Buckner!) Damnet Chris.

Small forward... Rudy Gay. Freak. No depth, but he'll go 40 minutes a game.

Power forward... Hakim Warrick, Antoine Walker, Darrell Arthur. Can't board, can't diet, can blaze.

Center... Darko Milicic, Marc Gasol, Hamed Haddadi. Vintage Mr. Wallace. Well done.

Grizzlies fans, your team sucks. You've got a lot of potential in the backcourt and on the wings, but North Carolina has a better frontcourt; in fact, if Rudy Gay were to get hurt, it might not be hyperbole to say the Tar Heels would be superior to Memphis.

Luckily, after your team wins 15 games this season, your owner will likely cede to a fan intervention and fire Chris Wallace, and a rehab can begin.

And the next GM will have a nice framework to build on. Conley, Mayo, and Gay are a spectactular, exciting, marketable young trio. All three could be future All Stars. Cap room is plentiful, and Darko, Jaric, and Buckner all come off the cap in the next two years to boot. Plus, two more years of poor showing should position the Grizzlies near the top of the draft.

I'm optimistic that the team could see a quick turnaround and end up picking at the bottom of the draft pretty easily as soon as 2010.

For one thing, they'll have mega cap dollars to spend the next two offseasons. It's unfortunate that the Atlanta Hawks matched the offer sheet Josh Smith signed with the Grizzlies because he would have been a dynamic young addition at a position of need, and it was good value. Looking at the 2009 free agent class, the Grizzlies could offer Carlos Boozer a maximum contract and sign Lamar Odom for about $10 million per year.

Suppose Memphis ends 2009 with the worst record in the NBA, BJ Mullens pans out at Ohio State, and a hypothetitypical draft lottery occurs with Memphis ending up with the third pick in the 2009 NBA Draft (all very possible). Some mix of Crittenton, Warrick, Arthur and Darko's expiring contract combined with their pick should add up to enough to move up to number one overall (assuming they don't win it outright).

I think it's reasonable and facile to foresee a world where Memphis, just one year from now, begins the 2009-2010 season with a depth chart of:
PG: Conley, Crittenton
SG: Mayo, Lowry
SF: Gay, Grant Hill (?)
PF: Boozer, Odom
C: Mullens, Gasol

Extremely young, but dare I say a championship contender from day one? I dare.

Of course, none of the above could occur with hapless Chris Wallace at the helm. So fans, grab your pitchforks and torches en masse!

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Realistic? Batshit crazy? Let me know what you think in the comments.

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